In the last week, wanna be human J.D. Vance admitted that he ginned up the entire “immigrants eating cats” story so that the news media would pay attention to immigration as an issue.
And it worked. All we’ve heard about since the Sept. 10 debate is Springfield, Ohio. Most journalists have debunked the lie, while breathlessly crying out over bomb threats to schools and municipal buildings.
But the lie - and it’s subsequent coverage - allowed the Trump campaign to control the narrative. Until Vance gave up the game. Then most national political journalists turned to other thin storylines that would make them feel as if they were doing their job.
Busy-work journalism.
The newest one is that Harris may be popular, but she will not win the correct states in order to win the Electoral College.
This seems to have started with Jonathan Martin at Politico. And since all the on-air cable pundits read Politico, his analysis that Harris will lose if she doesn’t win Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, got a lot of airtime toward the end of the week.
Martin, it may not surprise you, is highly skeptical she’ll win all three states.
I’m skeptical that Trump will win all three states.
The day that Martin’s piece was published, CNN broke news of current North Carolina Lt. Governor Mark Robinson participating in message boards on porn sights, where he professed to love watching trans sex and called himself a perv. He also called himself a “Black Nazi.”
What surprises me is that these stories broke as if they were surprising.
Robinson, who is running for governor, has referred to queer people as “filth.” He has said that he doesn’t believe that Paul Pelosi was attacked. He wants a total abortion ban - even though he paid for one for his wife to have when they were dating. He says women are unfit to lead. He denies the Holocaust happened, and says that the movie “Black Panther,” was “created by an agnostic Jew and put to film by satanic Marxists,” who were trying “to pull the shekels from shvartzes” - which is an incredibly derogatory Yiddish term for Black people.
Robinson also supports the very weird world of transinvestigations, which tries to suss out the true gender of public figures by using what sounds like a bastardization of eugenics.*
And yet, CNN catches his remarks on a porn site from 10 years ago and THAT’s the bombshell that breaks him?
The point is, Robinson is back on his heels, and Josh Stein, the current North Carolina Attorney General, seems to be widening his lead in the governor’s race.
If Stein wins, so will Harris. And there is good reason to believe that Harris will win more states than seem to be on pundits’ and pollsters’ radars.
Good Numbers?
That bit of hope comes from Tom Bonier, the CEO of the polling firm, TargetSmart, which looks at numbers regular pollsters don’t always count. In 2022, Bonier was spot on in terms of the effect the Dobbs decision overturning abortion rights would have on the election.
His modeling shows Harris’ entering the race having the same effect.
“Since VP Harris became the nominee,” Bonier writes, “women are accounting for nearly 55 percent of all new registrants. The only time we’ve seen anything even remotely similar was post-Dobbs decision in July of 2022.
“Even more strikingly, as evidenced by the chart above, both the high and low points of voter registration amongst women over the past two years plus have come within the past two months. Clearly, Harris has them fired up.”
It’s important to note Bonier’s above chart is for all voter registration, countrywide, Republicans, Democrats, non-partisan.
And yet his 2022 predictions came true in House, Senate, gubernatorial and state legislative elections, as the assumed red wave turned into a blue neap tide. The only thing that prevented Democrats from winning a majority in the House was New York, whose Democratic state party was squabbling so much that it elected George Santos (clearly doing a real-life spoof on Jon Lovitz) to a House seat on Long Island.
Here’s some of Bonier’s analysis for 2024, after July 21:
In Pennsylvania, total new registrations increased by 34.3% in the week following Harris becoming the presumptive nominee compared to the same period in 2020.
Among new registrants, D registration increased by 46.6% while GOP registration increased by 21.1%.
Demographically, young voters led the way. New registrations among voters under 30 increased by a shocking 59.6%, relative to 2020.
New registrations among women increased by 49%.
Among Black voters, there was a 110% increase, and among Black women, a 262% increase compared to 2020.
In North Carolina, expected to be one of the most important states this cycle, we have observed similar trends.
In the week after Harris became the presumptive nominee, the total number of registrants was almost 50% higher than it was during the same week in 2020 (17,178 to 12,426).
During this same period, the gender gap among new registrants was +12 women, compared to +6 four years earlier. Furthermore, 43% of new registrants were younger than 30, as compared to 27% in the same week of 2020.
Unsurprisingly, the new registrants are more D, +6 compared to even with the Rs during that same week in 2020.
In Wisconsin, women accounted for 60% of new registrations in the week after VP Harris announced her candidacy. During the same week in 2020, women comprised 55% of new registrations.
Furthermore, Latino voters have accounted for 8% of all new registrations, a 4% increase over 2020.
In Nevada, post-July 21 voter registration numbers amongst young Hispanic women in particular are astounding – as new registrants among them tripled the number of registrants during the same period in 2020.
Registration among Black women also more than doubled.
In Florida, new voter registrations in the week after Biden withdrew increased by 12% over the same week in 2020.
Yet registrations among young Black women increased by 141%
Bonier also tracked the uptick in voter registration numbers among women after the debate - and after Taylor Swift came out for Harris.
This seems really good for Democrats, but I always hesitate when I see percentages rather than numbers.
Yes, in Florida there was a 141% increase in Black women registering in the week of July 21 compared to the same week in 2020, but what does that mean in terms of numbers? Did 100 Black women register at the end of July in 2020? And 241 registered in the corresponding week in 2024? Or was it 500 Black women who registered in that week in 2020, and 1,200 who registered in 2024? Or 5,000, translating to 12,000?
I cannot find the total number of Black women registered in Florida, or the total number of unregistered Black women over the last four years. Nor can I find anything on TargetSmart or the Google machine to figure out actual registration numbers in the last week of July for 2020 or 2024.
Same goes for Nevada, where I live. Anecdotally, I can say young, Hispanic women are excited about Harris. Most of the politically active Latinas with whom I interact were especially morose about Biden. So it makes sense the numbers of those who registered to vote tripled after Biden dropped out.
But the Latino male population is pretty split. And many Latino men love Trump.
Many religious Black men also love Trump.
Does the increase in registration of young Latina and Black women offset that?
My instinct is yes. It shows enthusiasm. People are registering now, after an event - Harris in the race, Swift endorsing, etc.
It’s also a good sign for Dems that the new people who are registering are skewing young, are of color, and are female.
In Nevada, there are more non-partisan voters than either Democrats or Republicans. Partly, that’s because of our motor/voter laws, which register you to vote when you get a license, unless you opt out. And it defaults to registering you as non-partisan unless you pick a party.
I also think this non-partisan number is due to the disgust among younger voters with where the established Democratic and Republican parties have led us. True, many of those non-partisan voters could be former Republicans, disgusted with Trump. But people on the ground here in Vegas are pretty clear the non-partisan group is mostly young and previously not engaged. And they skew progressive.
Remember, Bernie Sanders won the 2020 Democratic caucuses in Nevada by a whopping 26 percent over Joe Biden.
In Pennsylvania, everything I’m reading tells me the opposite. Like Nevada, the plurality of voters are non-partisan, but many of the new, young registrants have skewed conservative. In fact, there are now more Republicans registered in Pennsylvania than Democrats. The opposite of 2022.
It is possible Harris loses Pennsylvania, but wins North Carolina. Certainly Nevada. Probably Arizona.
Georgia? Lots of litigation will happen in Georgia. Who the hell knows how the courts - or Court - will decide.
Florida Blue?
Remember, this election is not just about the presidency, it’s also about control of the House and Senate. And there are a number of Senate races that are closer than the red state/blue state narrative would suggest. Those races could also affect Harris.
I’m gonna make a prediction here.
I think Rick Scott is in trouble in Florida. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is running within a percentage point in most polls. And Florida has an abortion ballot measure - in a state that just enacted draconian abortion restrictions.
In fact, a new poll that separates male and female voters has Mucarsel-Powell up two points among women. If Bonier’s numbers match the percentages, and an overwhelming number of women - especially Black and Latina women - come out to vote in Florida, it could be a big win for Democrats, and abortion rights.
Harris keeps saying she’ll sign an abortion rights bill when it comes to her desk. It’s got to pass the House and Senate first. If either chamber’s majority is Republican, that will not happen.
It’s all about getting out the vote, and there are more registered Republicans in Florida than Democrats.
But “Republican” is not a definitive term anymore. Are they MAGA? Are they Liz Cheney/Adam Kinzinger never-Trumpers? Are they well-to-do beachfront property owners who can’t get home insurance anymore? Are they just regular Joes who are embarrassed by a governor whose giant persona turned out to be more fragile than a Macy’s Caspar the Ghost parade float?
I think Mucarsel-Powell will win. I think the abortion measure will pass. And I think (maybe more like hope) that will pull Harris over the line.
The national Democratic party is investing in a What’s App campaign for Mucarsel-Powell, targeting Florida’s 2.6 million Latino voters. But according to The Hill, the party is not yet pulling the levers on heavy investments in Florida.
Jennifer Rubin addresses this investment dilemma in her Washington Post column today. But, she notes, “…the abortion measure serves as a huge magnet, drawing younger voters and women to the polls.”
In terms of just the Senate (not president), it’s worth watching Texas, but I’m not sure Colin Allred will pull out a win against Ted Cruz. The margin right now is about 4 percentage points for Cruz. But I fear Texas’ voter intimidation tactics are making Dems feel so defeated, they won’t go to the polls.
Rubin also has her eye on Nebraska for a Senate pickup. (Yes, you read that right.)
If we’re thinking getting unlikely voters to the polls will make a difference, then Alaska might be in play for Harris. A couple of years ago, Mary Portola became the first Native elected to Congress from Alaska. She won because of Ranked Choice Voting. A repeal of RCV is on the ballot this year, and natives who haven’t voted for years are registering to vote.
Also… check it out. Harris has surged to within four points of Trump in Iowa.
Unlikely? Perhaps. But we are a nation that has been beaten down. And now we have an opportunity to stand up again. The enthusiasm I see indicates that people are seizing that opportunity.
Even if Texas and Iowa vote Trump, I think Harris has more paths to 270 that national pundits are willing to consider.
*For instance, Farrah Fawcett, say transinvestigators, was a man because she had straight shoulders. Ryan Gosling is obviously not a man because he has sloping shoulders.
I’m not joking. The site linked above calls this crap out. It’s pretty hilarious.
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